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P101 Essentials of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) for Industry

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Essentials of Probabilistic Risk Assessment

P101 ESSENTIALS OF PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT
Essentials of Probabilistic Risk Assessment

COURSE DESCRIPTION

(Duration: 2 ½ days) This course is an introduction into the methodology and current state-of-the-art techniques of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). The full spectrum of PRA is covered in this course with the goal of introducing the participant to basic fundamentals of risk and PRA concepts in order to better understand the methods and uses of this decision making tool. The course is taught using an interactive interface which keeps the participant involved in discussions and exercises.

Essentials of Probabilistic Risk AssessmentCOURSE OBJECTIVES

  • Discuss the history of nuclear power safety and the background of PRA.
  • Relate the basic concepts of risk and safety analysis to Probabilistic Risk Assessment.
  • Examine nuclear safety design methodologies and show how PRA is applied.
  • Describe the fundamental essentials of a full PRA.
  • Explain the role of PRA in decision making and industry application.
  • Recognize the importance of PRA quality and the role it has in analyzing risk.

Introduction to Seismic PRA Methods

 

WHO SHOULD ATTEND

This course is designed for the individual who requires knowledge in PRA techniques to better evaluate the effects of design, testing, maintenance, and operation of systems for daily decision making.

INSTRUCTOR - SCOTT BECK

Mr. Beck has been in the risk and reliability assessment field for 18 years. His educational background includes a M.S. in Instrumentation and Control Systems, a B.S. in Electrical Engineering, and a B.A. in Chemistry, all from Idaho State University. A majority of his career was a Probabilistic Risk Assessment Engineer at the Idaho National Laboratory. Projects include a primary analyst for the SPAR (Standardized Plant Analysis Risk) model program, risk analyst for NGNP (Next Generation Nuclear Plant) licensing procedure, and safety and hazard analyst for chemical, radiological, military and space systems. He also served 15 years as an instructor for the NRC’s PRA Professional Development Program and was an instructor for PRA Technology and Regulatory Perspectives, PRA Basic for Regulatory Applications, SAPHIRE risk analysis software and External Events courses.

 COURSE AGENDA

Day 1 — (8:00am – 4:30pm)
Registration (8:00—8:30)
Hot full breakfast provided by hotel.
Complimentary group lunch provided.
Morning and afternoon snacks and drinks provided.
 
Basic Risk Concepts of PRA
  • What is Risk
  • Approaches to Studying Risk
  • Risk Matrix
  • History of PRA
Nuclear Safety Design
  • Treatment of Accidents in Design
  • Deterministic Safety Analysis
  • Defense-in-Depth Philosophy
  • Use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Design
  • NRC Compliance in Nuclear Power Plant Design and Operation
What is PRA?
  • Probability Operations and Concepts
  • Frequency vs. Probability
  • Probability Distribution Models
  • Cut Sets and Quantification Methods
Event Tree Analysis
  • Event Tree Methodology
  • Initiating Events
  • Event Tree Construction

Fault Tree Analysis

  • Fault Tree Methodology
  • Fault Tree Development Process
  • Fault Tree Construction
  • Success Criteria
  • Fault Tree Logic and Boolean Reduction

Day 2 — (8:30am – 4:30pm)
Hot full breakfast provided by hotel.
Complimentary group lunch provided.
Morning and afternoon snacks and drinks provided.

Failure Data
  • Failure Modes
  • Data Sources
  • Common Cause Failure
Human Reliability Analysis
  • Human/System interaction
  • Categories of Human Errors
  • Human Reliability Analysis Techniques
  • Integrating HRA in PRA
  • Performance Shaping Factors
Generating Sequences
  • Inputs to Quantification
  • Approaches to Sequence Quantification (i.e. Fault Tree Linking)
  • Sequence Logic
  • Recovery Actions
  
Day 2 (Continued)
 
Importance Measures
  • Fussell-Vesely
  • Risk Achievement Worth
  • Birnbaum Importance
Uncertainty in PRA
  • Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainty
  • Uncertainty Distributions
External Event Analysis
  • History of External Events and IPEEEs
  • Seismic Analysis
  • Fire PRA and NFPA 805 Transition
  • Flood and High Wind Analysis
Low Power and Shutdown PRA
  • Low Power and Shutdown (LPSD) Characteristics
  • Factors That Increase Risk During Shutdown
  • LPSD PRA Format and Findings
  • Use of Risk Monitors during LPSD
Level II and Level III PRA
  • Purpose of Level II and Level III PRA
  • Level II – Accident Progression Analysis
  • Level II Software Overview
  • Level III – Consequence Analysis
  • Level III Software Overview
  • Accident Sequences
 
Day 3 — (8:30am – noon)
Hot full breakfast provided by hotel.
Morning snack and drink provided.
 
Safety Systems and PRA
  • Safety Design
  • Generic Letter 88-20 (Request for Individual Plant Examination (IPE))
  • IPE Requirements
PRA Applications in Industry
  • PRA uses by other Industries
  • Airline Industry PRA Philosophy
  • NASA PRA Philosophy
  • PRA Applications in Decision Making
  • NRC Policy Statement
  • NRC Framework and Risk Informed Regulation (Regulatory Guide 1.174)
  • Risk Informed Decision Making
  • Overview of the “Maintenance Rule” and the NRC Reactor Oversight Process (ROP)
  • Significance Determination Process (SDP)
  • Mitigating Systems Performance Index (MSPI)
  • Design Certification and COLs
PRA Quality
  • PRA Quality Elements
  • NRC Approach to PRA Quality (Regulatory Guide 1.200)
  • American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Standard for PRA Quality
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