·   Discuss the history of nuclear power safety and the background of PRA.

·   Relate the basic concepts of risk and safety  analysis to Probabilistic Risk Assessment.

·   Examine nuclear safety design methodologies and show how PRA is applied.

·   Describe the fundamental essentials of a full PRA.

·   Explain the role of PRA in decision making and industry application.

·   Recognize the importance of PRA quality and the role it has in analyzing risk.

WHO SHOULD ATTEND

This course is designed for the individual who requires knowledge in PRA techniques to better evaluate the effects of design, testing, maintenance, and operation of systems for daily decision making.

COURSE AGENDA

·   Discuss the history of Seismic Risk Analysis and the background of IPEEEs.

·   Familiarize participants with the terminology and approaches used to assess seismic hazards and risks.

·   Relate the approaches of Seismic Margin and of Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (SPRA) and explain their differences.

·   Describe the state-of-the-art methods for performing ASME PRA Standard requirements to Seismic PRAs and for satisfying future NRC requirements.

·   Explain seismic hazard evaluation methods and the concept of seismic fragility using basic principles and examples.

Day 1 (8:30am – 4:30pm)

Risk Concepts of PRA
What is Risk
Approaches to Studying Risk
Risk Matrix
History of PRA

Risk and Seismic Hazard Review
What is a Seismic Hazard
Seismic Terminology
Earthquake Characteristics
Overview of the IPEEE Approach for Seismic Risk Vulnerabilities
Applicable Regulatory Requirements for Seismic Design and Analysis

Seismic Hazard Assessment

Overview of Seismic Analysis Methodologies
NRC/EPRI Seismic Hazard Analysis
Seismicity Models
Ground Motion Estimation
Peak Ground Acceleration
Probability of Exceedance
Seismic Hazard Curve Development

Seismic Fragility Evaluation

Structure Fragility
Component Fragility
Fragility Methodologies
Fragility Curves
Plant Walkdown Objectives and Findings

Seismic Margin Approach

NRC/EPRI Methodologies
HCLPF for Structures, Systems, and Components
Fault-space Based Logic Model
Failure Modes
Screening Criteria

Seismic PRA and Sequence Analysis

ASME PRA Standard Regarding Seismic PRAs
Seismic Initiating Events
Seismic Fragility Parameters
Sequence Modeling
Event Tree Linking Approach
Seismic Human Reliability Analysis
Containment Response

·   Discuss the background of risk and safety analysis and the history of PRA.

·   Relate the basic concepts of risk and safety analysis to Probabilistic Risk Assessment.

·   Examine nuclear safety design methodologies and show how PRA is applied.

·   Describe the technical state-of-the art methodologies and techniques of PRA.

·   Gain experience using PRA in safety and risk assessment decision making.

·    Understand the role of PRA in decision making for design, construction, and operations of industry applications and regulatory affairs.

·    Recognize the importance of PRA quality using the ASME/ANS Probabilistic Risk Assessment Standard incorporated by both industry and government regulators.

·    Expand the participants skill set using popular risk assessment software.

WHO SHOULD ATTEND

This course is designed for the individual who needs a deeper understanding of PRA methodology and a greater appreciation for implementing PRA techniques in risk-informed decision making and the analyses of risk matrixes. The 4 week class accommodates those individuals that require a comprehensive coverage of probabilistic safety assessments so they can be immediately effective in a risk-informed performance based regulated nuclear industry. New utility or nuclear industry employees needing background and experience in the PRA process with respect to design, licensing, construction, plant operation and maintenance, or regulatory affairs should attend. Utility employees that are reassigning or changing job responsibilities to safety, design or operational support, or regulatory or operational compliance will gain exceptional insight into risk-informed decision making using PRA. Though the course is catered to the nuclear industry, it is very practical for individuals in other industry fields requiring the expertise of PRA for safety and risk assessment decision making, such as space and aerospace industries, chemical, transportation industries, and government agencies that lack comprehensive in-house PRA training that this course offers.

COURSE AGENDA

Week 1 – Foundation of PRA

Day 1 (8:30am – 4:30pm)

Lecture 1

Introduction to PRA

What, When, and Why?
Initiating Events
Event Tree Analysis
Risky Business
History of PRA
A Discussion About “Core Damage”
Other Industries Uses of PRA

Lecture 2

Event Tree Elements

ASME Standard on Sequences
Event Tree Logic
Sequences
Cutsets
Sequence and Cutset Interpolation
Sequence and Cutset Generation
Using Risk Assessment Code

Day 2 (8:30am – 4:30pm)

Lecture 3

Fault Tree Analysis

ASME Standard on Fault Trees
Failure Rates
Single Failure Criterion
Active vs. Passive Failures
Data Analysis

Lecture 4

Risk Statistics

Risk Achievement Worth
Risk Reduction Worth
Fussell-Vesely
Birnhaum
Risk Rankings

Day 3 (8:30am – 4:30pm)

Lecture 5

Success Criteria

ASME Standard Requirements for Success Criteria
Determination of Success Criterion

Lecture 6

Success Criteria (Cont.)

Decay Heat vs. Fission Power
Success Criteria Examples

Day 4 (8:30am – 4:30pm)

Lecture 7

Data Analysis

Sources of Data
Demand Failures
Mission Time Failures
Data Error Factors
Test and Maintenance Data
ASME Standard Requirements for Data Analysis
Data Groupings
Common Cause Failures
Bayesian Updating

Lecture 8

Initiating Events

ASME Standard Requirements for IE Analysis
Using the FSAR
IE Calculations

Day 5 (8:30am – 12:00pm)

Lecture 8 (Cont.)

Initiating Events (Cont.)

Pitfalls of IE Calculations
The LOOP Partitioned Initiator
Grouping of Initiators

Review of Week 1

Week 2 – PRA Advanced Topics

Week 3 – PRA Technologies & Applications

Day 1 (8:30am – 4:30pm)

Lecture 17

Level III PRA

Background
ASME Standard Requirements for Level III
Sample Method
Classification Schemes
Sectors
Costs
Radionuclide Release
Meteorological Data
Offsite Exposure

Lecture 18

Qualitative and Blended Analysis

Traditional Engineering Analysis
ASME Standard Requirements on Qualitative Evaluation
Blending Analysis
Deterministic Analysis Examples

Day 2 (8:30am – 8:30pm)

Lecture 19

Fire and Seismic Analysis

ASME Standard on Fire PRA
Characteristic of Fire
Ignition Sources
Spurious Operations
NUREG/CR-6850 Review
Seismic Analysis
Seismic Hazards
Fragility Analysis
HCLPF

Lecture 20

Transition and Shutdown Risk

ASME Standard on Low Power/Shutdown Risk
Overview of Shutdown Mode
Shutdown Hazards
Boiling Time and Frequency
Transition Risk
Ramping Risk

Day 3 (8:30am – 4:30pm)

Lecture 21

Significance Determination Process (SDP) Part I

Management Directive 8.3
Inspection Teams
NRC Viewpoint
Levels of Significance
Reactor Oversight Process
How the SDP Works
Utility Role in SDP
SDP Phases
Color Confusions

Lecture 22

Significance Determination Process (SDP) Part II

Review of SDP Examples
SDP Politics
Delta CDF vs. CCDP

Day 4 (8:00am – 4:30pm)

Lecture 23

History of Tech Specs

Nomenclature
Embedded Margin
NRC Perspective
Regulatory Framework
Tier 1 Procedure
Tier 2 and 3 Procedure

Lecture 24

Risk-Informed Technical Specifications (Part II)

PRA Quality (Regulatory Guide 1.200)
Model Details
Risk Informed Regulation (Regulatory Guide 1.174)

Day 5 (8:00am – 12:00pm)

Lecture 24 (Cont.)

Risk-Informed Technical Specifications (Part II) (Cont.)

NRC Risk Initiatives
Missed Surveillance
Initiative 4B

Review of Week 3

Week 4 – Risk-Informed, Performance-Based PRA Applications

Day 1 (8:30am – 4:30pm)

Lecture 25

Mitigating Systems Performance Indicators (Part I)

MSPI Overview
Reactor Oversight Process
Generation of the Indicators
MSPI Monitoring
Unavailability Index
Unreliabilty Index

Lecture 26

Mitigating Systems Performance Indicators (Part II)

MSPI Truncation
Asymmetry
Common Cause Failure Effects
The MSPI Systems
Important Compotents
Margin Recovery

Day 2 (8:30am – 4:30pm)

Lecture 27

Maintenance Rule (Part I)

10 CFR 50.65(a)(4)
Maintenance Configuration
Regulatory Guide 1.182
NUMARC 93-01
Sample Calculation Example
Periodic Tests
Alignments

Lecture 28

Maintenance Rule (Part II)

Tracking of Components
Documentation Requirements
Risk Management Actions
Configuration – Specific IEs
Heavy Load Analysis
Degraded Components
Shutdown Risk Considerations
Fire Risk Considerations
Long-Term Configurations

Day 3 (8:30am – 4:30pm)

Lecture 29

Risk-Informed in Service Inspection (Part I)

In Service Inspection Overview
Current Requirements
Regulatory Guide 1.178
ISI Process
Segment Determination
Operator Action
Piping Failure Potential
Consequences
PRA Role

Lecture 30

Risk-Informed in Service Inspection (Part II)

Segment Definition Example
Rupture Example
Uncertainty Analysis
PRA Interpretation

Day 4 (8:00am – 4:30pm)

Lecture 31

Maintenance Rule (a)(1) Part I

10 CFR 50.65(a)(1)
Risk Informed vs. Risk Based
Performance Criteria
PRA Risk Significance
Classification Process

Lecture 32

Maintenance Rule (a)(1) Part II

Sample Problem
System vs. Component Criteria

Day 5 (8:00am – 12:00pm)

Lecture 32 (Cont.)

Maintenance Rule (a)(1) Part II (Cont.)

Modeling Limitations
Monitoring Intervals

Review of Week 4

Future of PRA